Australian Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson has said that the mining boom has ended. The remarks immediately triggered several senior officials, including Prime Minister Gillard rebuttal, the latter insisted that far from the end of the mining boom will continue to support Australia's sustained economic growth.
As a pretext for the head, scattered around the mining prospects remarks fierce collision is the evolution of the long and short view, a reflection of the Australian mining complex variables. Despite excessive sing empty Mining may be too hasty, short factors affecting the mining industry would still be worth to think calmly.
The mining magnates introduced contraction strategy
Recently, BHP Billiton, Shell, Woodside mining giant has announced the postponement of Australia iron ore, natural gas project, involving the amount of investment so far has exceeded 68 billion Australian dollars (U.S. $ 70.4 billion). The direct cause of action in a series of contraction is the uncertainty of market trends.
Affected by the European debt crisis, slowing growth of emerging economies and other factors, the main iron ore price of about $ 180 per ton from the same period last year shock down to below $ 100 a tonne, a record low since December 2009.
Pushing Hands introduction of mining giant contraction strategy much more than lower prices. Exchange rates, tax rates, finance, and industry profit distribution structure factors can not be ignored. CLSA analyst Ian Loper said iron ore prices fell to $ 60 per ton in 2008, but then the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar exchange rate is only 1 to 0.6, the cost is relatively low. In recent years, however, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar exceeded 1.1 high and stable at a ratio of 0.93 or more in the past year. This means that the market price is lower, the profit margin of the miners and even less than the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
BHP Billiton CEO Marius Kloppers pointed out that over the past 10 years, the Australian mining development costs in U.S. dollar terms increased sevenfold, half of the cost increase is directly due to the Australian dollar soaring.
Australian government efforts to promote the carbon tax and mineral resources rent tax reform. Taxes to improve together with the high Australian dollar and other negative factors, will significantly increase the cost of mining development.
The research report released by the Minerals Council of Australia, Australian thermal coal cost per tonne of new capacity within the past five years rose three times, so that the relevant feasibility of the project into doubt. Compared to West Africa, 75% above the cost of iron ore mining in Australia.
In addition, some small and medium-sized mining companies must also focus on financing costs.
Disparity unfair distribution of profits of the upstream and downstream
In addition to the above factors, the Australian mining more fundamental problem is that the status quo of the current industry upstream and downstream disparity unfair distribution of profits.
For example, iron ore, according to industry sources, one ton of iron ore in Western Australia offshore cost less than $ 60, while the offshore market in recent years, the average price was as high as about $ 160, and for many years maintained a double-digit increase. Many Chinese steel enterprises but has incurred losses in miners earn pours. By the shrinking demand for steel, Steel Association member companies, losses in the first half of this year more than one-third of August, expanded to more than 80% loss. China Steel Association said China's steel industry is only 1.68 yuan (about 0.26 U.S. dollars) per production of 1 ton of steel profits.
As an important raw material base of the China Iron and Steel Industry, Western Australia more than 70% of the iron ore supply the Chinese market. In this regard, one wonders, in industry downstream face of massive industry-wide loss situation, the mining the feast what can enjoy long?
Analysts pointed out that the view of some developing countries, urbanization, industrialization process has yet to be completed, and the Australian mining investment accumulated stock of up to 270 billion Australian dollars (U.S. $ 279.6 billion), mining will continue to support the economic growth of Australia. In addition, since the financial crisis, the U.S. policy of quantitative easing fueled commodity markets may still push up the market price if the authorities to release a new round of quantitative easing.
However, if future short factors continued to exert influence each other, inevitably promote the current mining boom downhill.
Australia's central bank recently said that mining investment is expected to peak will be reached in the 2013-2014 fiscal year, and then after years of downlink non-resource sector investment will appear accordingly uplink. This may help to alleviate the current plight of Australia's two-speed economy ".
comparison of impact crusher and jaw crusher
vertical shaft impact crusher working principle
zimbabwe rotation impact crusher prices
没有评论:
发表评论