2012年9月18日星期二

How to resist China's iron ore global market downturn

Today's global market remains in the doldrums, iron ore, coke, coking coal, the charge faced with how fate, the Chinese how to save? Wait and see.

Iron ore
A few days ago, the Chinese iron and steel enterprise information, BHP Billiton agreed to Japan's largest steelmaker - Nippon Steel Tues supply the fourth quarter of 2012 (October-December) offshore of hard coking coal, the price of 170 U.S. dollars / ton, the price than iron ore prices for the third quarter of 2012 was $ 225 / ton, down 55 U.S. dollars / ton, ring than the 25% decline. Iron ore prices is vulnerable, but the coking coal price decreases considerably large margin, more than we expected.

Coke
Billet prices rebound ineffective the Hebei region coke market weakness remains. NDRC: September 5 approved 25 rail transit projects, and 20 other traffic warehousing project, an energy pipeline project and the three companies to borrow offshore commercial loan project, September 6th relevant ministries and approved 11 infrastructure The project, involving an investment amount of more than 7000 billion; resulting in the billet continuous rise in the short term, ferocious rally. Skeptical but most of the steel mills of the late, have strong supporting factor prices, merchants wait-and-see mentality heavier; coupled with destabilizing effects of blank price the discontinued steel mills in the short term is difficult to resume production.

Early September for Large Iron and Steel Group, the the coke market high-end price, I feel pressure. Various steel mills were low inventory run some steel mills, coke stocks coke market downturn persists, the steel mills to negotiate the price will drop $ 100, the file yet announced the expected level the coke tax to the factory price 1480 yuan will be executed / ton. At the same time, the purchase price of coke Shougang Group in September this price, this is the last few years the only time the two steel mills coke purchase price "encounter".

Coking coal
Domestic coking coal prices continued to fall, the steel procurement stocks are running low. Across the country steel mills have said that many steel enterprises are at a loss, in addition to cuts, limiting the production of variable-like strategy, the upstream raw coke, coking coal and iron ore prices and costs is the main influence factors. Reduce inventory in the market remains in the doldrums the market fell, on the one hand be able to reduce the appropriation of funds, on the other hand, anti-guilty of coking coal downlink lead the hidden losses.

Domestic coking coal faces downside risks, by "Eighteen" and Dongchu seasonal impact, coking coal supporting factor synchronization is established; especially large ore coking coal prices plummeted in July to September, close to this part of the mine gas clean coal, steam coal has to stabilize rebound, play a stimulating role in the coking coal market.

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