THE Queensland Resources Council has predicted more than $A25.3 billion of capital expenditure will leave the state and more than 14,000 jobs will be at risk, following its survey of resource companies on the impact of the resources super-profits tax.
Only 30 out of 79 resource companies took part, but 53% of those that responded said their significant future projects were either “highly likely” or “likely” to be under threat because of the tax.
Another 41% revealed they cannot yet determine the impact and just 6% said it was unlikely to threaten their future projects.
Given the size of some of the anonymous companies which did respond, including at least three with 2008-09 turnover of more than $2 billion, QRC is estimating that 10,400 full time construction jobs could be lost, along with 4520 full-time operational jobs.
Fortescue Metals Group and Xstrata have been some of the quickest to shelve projects since the unexpected RSPT announcement in May, but this action might just be the entree to what is to come.
When asked about the possibility of scaling back existing operations because of the tax, 23% of respondent companies said it was “highly likely”, while another 23% said it was likely.
As another sign of the uncertainty which is rife at the moment, 46% said they cannot yet determine whether they will need to scale back or not.
Only 8% could say it was unlikely they would scale back their operations.
On the worst-case scenario of shutting down existing operations, fortunately 44% felt it was unlikely but 40% were undetermined while another 16% said it was likely.
Unsurprisingly, 85% of the respondent companies were confident that debt capital would flow to other countries because Australia is now perceived to have a greater sovereign risk because of the super mining tax.
None of the companies surveyed said the RSPT in its current form would not put constraints on wages.
Just 10% said it could not be determined at this stage while a whopping 90% felt this would happen, with 55% in the “highly likely” category.
Community infrastructure spending plans look set to be thrown out the window with half of the respondents saying this was highly likely to be constrained, 40% saying it was likely and 10% undecided.
Due to the higher local mining wages compared to those in developing nations, it is unsurprising that none of the surveyed companies plan to cut spending on research, development and deployment of technologies.
Industry views
While the federal government often complains about fear-mongering from the big miners, a lot of the small explorers have a lot to lose from the RSPT.
Common themes in the anonymous comment responses in the survey from juniors and explorers centred on new difficulties to capital raising or obtaining finance.
One exploration company with 12 full-time employees argued the tax means fewer deposits will be developed and established mines are less likely to expand or create new ones.
“In addition, companies will selectively mine the high grade to maintain margins and [leave] the medium and low-grade resources unexploited,” the undisclosed explorer said.
“Once the best zones are mined the remaining resource will likely be stranded forever ie [the] exact opposite to what the government has promoted.”
A contracting company which employs about 100 full-time staff can see bust ups in this sector.
“Even if it was to exist in the end, the stalled projects in the period of uncertainty will send a number of contracting companies broke as they continually get pressured for ‘free consulting’, pricing-up projects with no near-term revenue stream,” the contractor said.
A large miner with annual turnover of $2.4 billion in 2008-09 and 1215 full-time workers said the RSPT would impact major long-term contracts with state governments negotiated in 2004 and 2005 and running to 2025 and 2030 respectively.
The company said these deals were negotiated and priced on the basis that only the states would collect resource-rent.
How much tax?
The “super-profits” tax is a not-yet-finalised proposal to tax 40% of the profits made from extracting resources.
Disliking the way the tax is being sold by the government, Deloitte resources tax partner Darren Lee called it an “extraction tax”.
But when adding in existing corporate tax rates, the average effective tax rate expected by the surveyed companies is 58% once the RSPT is introduced in mid 2012.
This compared to an average effective rate of 39% before the RSPT.
A mining company with 2750 full-time equivalent staff said one of the objectives of the Henry review was to make the Australian tax system simpler.
“With several thousand mining operations in Australia and a determination of the taxing point in regard to super tax possibly required for each operation, it is not difficult to conclude that this proposal is unlikely to achieve the objective of simplicity,” the company said in QRC’s survey.
“These snapshot results cover mining, minerals processing, oil and gas production and exploration and say unambiguously that the proposed super-profits tax is taking a crippling toll on future resource projects in Queensland,” QRC chief executive Michael Roche told an audience in Mount Isa today.
“The formula that the federal government is proposing means high levels of tax early in a project, eroding its value and internal rate of return to the developers.
“If project valuations fail to meet a company’s cost of capital and the internal hurdle rate of return, the project usually does not proceed.”
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